November Newsletter – Silicon Valley Market Update

Median single-family home prices continued to substantially increase year-over-year with a median home price of $1.75 million in San Mateo, $1.4 million in Santa Clara, and $1.06 million in Santa Cruz, an all-time high.

Year-over-year, median single-family home prices were up substantially across counties, while condo prices were mixed. Santa Cruz saw a huge year-over-year increase in condo prices.

Total inventory continued to decline as the number of sold homes rose, far outpacing the new listings that came to market. Like the rest of the country, demand is outpacing new supply, which buoys Silicon Valley home prices. Single-family home inventory is lower, and is likely to decline as we make our way into the winter months.

The number of condos on the market has increased fairly consistently since May. The demand for condos and new condos coming to market have stayed about the same each month since May with slightly more condos coming to market than bought, which has caused inventory to rise. Condo inventory is 13% higher than last year. However, demand for condos is still high.

Single-family home sales have climbed since the initial months of the pandemic (March through May). Generally, buyers and sellers left the market in April and May, causing pent-up demand. Sales increased and are still near the highest level this year for single-family homes. Usually, we expect sales to decline in the autumn and winter months, but this year’s summer selling season was delayed and seems to be spilling into autumn.

The Days on Market (DOM) is lower year-over-year. Months of Supply Inventory has continued to stay low because of the inventory decline and faster pace of sales.

We can use Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) as a metric to judge whether the market favors buyers or sellers. The average MSI is three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three means that buyers dominate the market and there are relatively few sellers (i.e., it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI means there are more sellers than buyers (i.e., it’s a buyers’ market). The MSI decreased to 1.1 for single-family homes and 2.2 for condos, both favoring sellers.

In summary, the high demand in the Silicon Valley has sustained home prices. Inventory for single-family homes will likely decline further as we enter the winter months with fewer sellers coming to market, potentially lifting prices higher. Overall, the housing market has shown its resilience through the pandemic and remains one of the safest asset classes. Economic indicators are in an anomalous state, meaning that they are out of trend with each other. The data show that housing has remained consistently strong through this period.

We anticipate new listings to slow through the holiday months. Condo prices will likely remain stable with no outsized gains or losses through the winter months. The autumn/winter season tends to see a slowdown in activity, although we may see a new trend this year with higher-than-normal sales.

As always, we remain committed to helping our clients achieve their current and future real estate goals. Our team of experienced professionals are happy to discuss the information we have shared in this newsletter. We welcome you to contact us with any questions about the current market or to request an evaluation of your home or condo.

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